Betting Lines
| Spread | CSUN -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | UND +215 CSUN -260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSUN +8 | 178 | Lost |
| Massey | UND -13.9 (-21.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.8 (+34.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UND -3.8 (-11.8) | 137.6 (+40.4) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UND -4.8 (-12.8) | 139.6 (+38.4) | 76% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UND | CSUN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-17 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 12-8 |
| Home | 9-7 | 12-3 |
| Away | 7-8 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 80.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.6 | 81.3 |
| Massey | -5.3 (#265) | -4.9 (#258) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.88 (#326) | -0.42 (#233) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.53 (#323) | -0.64 (#237) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#61) | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UND | CSUN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 32.7% |
| 3PT% | 25.6% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 27.5 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.50 | 0.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.9% | 38.5% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 27.8% |
| ORB% | 20.5% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 17.4% | 32.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 60.4% | 61.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.3% | 13.9% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 81.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 42.6% | 12.7% |
Game Analysis
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