Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | MSU -150 ARK +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +3 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -2.9 (+0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.5 (-26.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -1.2 (+1.8) | 149.2 (-14.2) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -3.3 (-0.3) | 149.4 (-14.4) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -5.4 (-2.4) | 149.8 (-14.8) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 28-9 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 13-5 |
| Home | 15-2 | 17-1 |
| Away | 6-4 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 90.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 81.0 |
| Massey | -4.7 (#252) | 6.7 (#49) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.03 (#160) | 0.35 (#139) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.02 (#162) | 0.53 (#128) |
| RPI | 0.250 (#209) | 0.500 (#76) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 50.7% |
| 3PT% | 28.6% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 47.0 | 45.0 |
| OREB / G | 19.0 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.80 | 2.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 57.5% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 11.0% |
| ORB% | 46.3% | 35.9% |
| FT Rate | 40.0% | 34.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.0% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 90.3% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 7.0% | 15.9% |
Game Analysis
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