Betting Lines
| Spread | BRAD -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | BRAD -550 CMU +380 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BRAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRAD +31 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | BRAD -10.6 (+20.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.5 (-0.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRAD -3.2 (+27.8) | 136.3 (+2.7) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BRAD -3.0 (+28.0) | 134.8 (+4.2) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BRAD | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 6-12 |
| Home | 14-3 | 8-5 |
| Away | 4-7 | 1-15 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 77.7 |
| Massey | -3.2 (#227) | 0.6 (#156) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.00 (#294) | 0.42 (#115) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.37 (#293) | 0.60 (#117) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#76) | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BRAD | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 51.7% |
| 3PT% | 27.3% | 44.4% |
| REB / G | 29.0 | 43.0 |
| OREB / G | 5.0 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 58.6% |
| TOV% | 13.6% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 14.7% | 44.8% |
| FT Rate | 16.1% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 44.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 13.9% |
| DRB% | 61.5% | 63.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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