Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | CSU -1800 OMA +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +23 | 171 | Won |
| Massey | CSU -18.0 (+5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.7 (+17.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -13.2 (+9.8) | 145.1 (+25.9) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -15.7 (+7.3) | 145.9 (+25.1) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSU | OMA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 8-8 |
| Home | 12-6 | 10-4 |
| Away | 6-5 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 77.7 |
| Massey | 6.6 (#50) | 2.8 (#117) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#116) | -1.17 (#301) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.65 (#103) | -1.52 (#300) |
| RPI | — | 0.500 (#76) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSU | OMA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 60.4% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 52.0% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 43.0 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 2.20 | 0.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 74.0% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 22.3% |
| ORB% | 38.1% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 56.2% | 33.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.1% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 7.5% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 83.3% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 39.7% |
Game Analysis
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