Betting Lines
| Spread | TAR -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | TAR -175 AMCC +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TAR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TAR +8 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | TAR -6.1 (+1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.8 (+13.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | AMCC -0.6 (+8.6) | 138.7 (+23.3) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TAR -0.3 (+7.7) | 142.3 (+19.7) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TAR -0.8 (+7.2) | 139.5 (+22.5) | 41% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TAR | AMCC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 13-9 |
| Home | 10-6 | 10-5 |
| Away | 4-11 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 69.4 |
| Massey | -7.1 (#299) | 1.0 (#145) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.64 (#261) | -0.36 (#208) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.92 (#269) | -0.48 (#193) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#76) | 0.500 (#76) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TAR | AMCC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.4% | 28.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 27.6% |
| REB / G | 25.0 | 45.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 16.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.6% | 34.8% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 37.2% | 18.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 71.4% | 39.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 13.2% |
| DRB% | 65.1% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 57.3% | 39.0% |
Game Analysis
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