Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | VILL -3000 QUC +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +20 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | VILL -13.7 (+6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.0 (+30.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -4.8 (+15.2) | 136.4 (+31.6) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -7.0 (+13.0) | 135.1 (+32.9) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | QUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 13-5 |
| Home | 14-3 | 12-2 |
| Away | 9-3 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 84.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 83.8 |
| Massey | -1.7 (#205) | -1.1 (#192) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.06 (#298) | -1.28 (#309) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.43 (#296) | -1.79 (#307) |
| RPI | — | 0.250 (#209) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | QUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.8% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 28.6% | 20.0% |
| REB / G | 49.0 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 17.0 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.3% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 23.1% |
| ORB% | 35.4% | 37.8% |
| FT Rate | 11.9% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.2% | 45.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 5.9% | 14.1% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 61.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 40.3% |
Game Analysis
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