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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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23–5 on winners spread MAE 9.8 30 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Florida International @ Miami	+21.5	150.1	91%	80–86	✓
Villanova @ Pennsylvania	+5.4	141.4	67%	72–76	✓
Siena @ American University	+5.2	138.9	69%	58–78	✓
The Citadel @ Presbyterian	+11.1	134.9	84%	64–71	✓
Hampton @ Norfolk State	—	—	—	68–75	—
Central Michigan @ Florida State	+21.9	149.9	91%	67–94	✓
North Florida @ South Carolina State	-5.4	146.6	28%	77–87	✗
Stony Brook @ Duquesne	+12.6	150.1	85%	63–85	✓
East Tennessee State @ Butler	+18.9	146.3	89%	47–81	✓
Quinnipiac @ Massachusetts	+15.5	149.4	86%	81–102	✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Pittsburgh	+20.5	144.0	89%	74–86	✓
VMI @ South Carolina	+13.9	149.9	86%	64–74	✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Northwestern State	+0.3	141.7	59%	96–70	✗
Western Carolina @ Middle Tennessee	+6.7	135.6	64%	66–64	✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Central Arkansas	+6.5	144.9	76%	85–83	✗
Southern @ Arizona	+22.3	163.6	90%	59–97	✓
Stetson @ Houston	+25.7	131.5	91%	48–79	✓
Old Dominion @ Arkansas	+15.1	145.4	86%	77–86	✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Missouri	+7.2	131.4	68%	50–68	✓
South Dakota State @ Kansas State	+5.9	148.3	68%	68–91	✓
Oral Roberts @ Missouri State	+3.5	140.3	63%	69–84	✓
Rider @ Nebraska	+17.9	140.0	89%	50–64	✓
Xavier @ Purdue	+13.2	143.1	86%	71–83	✓
UC Santa Barbara @ UTEP	—	—	—	76–89	—
Cal State Bakersfield @ California	+2.3	144.7	52%	63–83	✓
Long Island University @ Pepperdine	+18.0	146.8	89%	53–88	✓
North Dakota State @ UC Davis	-0.9	145.1	44%	53–68	✗
Wisconsin @ Providence	+6.8	148.5	73%	59–72	✓
Wofford @ Tennessee	+19.8	150.8	90%	61–82	✓
Bucknell @ La Salle	+8.0	140.6	79%	57–69	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.