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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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15–13 on winners spread MAE 10.0 28 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Elon @ Drexel +1.4 133.2 55% 56–63 ✓
Wake Forest @ Notre Dame +7.2 139.9 76% 77–80 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Bryant +7.0 134.7 78% 73–68 ✗
Oakland @ Cleveland State +3.7 146.4 65% 69–80 ✓
Manhattan @ Fairfield -0.5 130.6 48% 58–59 ✗
Southern Miss @ Rice +2.0 141.3 60% 52–61 ✓
BYU @ Gonzaga +9.1 157.2 79% 78–88 ✓
Oral Roberts @ North Dakota State -0.4 148.2 47% 75–72 ✓
Houston Christian @ Incarnate Word +1.2 142.3 56% 80–68 ✗
Cal Poly @ Cal State Fullerton +7.3 140.1 78% 87–82 ✗
Sacramento State @ Northern Colorado -0.4 135.3 49% 83–90 ✗
NC State @ Syracuse +1.3 143.4 53% 68–89 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Portland State +7.0 132.0 76% 77–66 ✗
San José State @ Wyoming +11.2 153.4 85% 80–111 ✓
Miami @ Clemson +9.1 128.2 81% 67–64 ✗
Marquette @ Georgetown -2.2 141.1 40% 49–68 ✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Jackson State +10.3 128.5 83% 62–74 ✓
Washington State @ Arizona State -1.3 145.7 45% 59–64 ✗
Air Force @ UNLV +7.9 128.9 79% 52–80 ✓
Iona @ Siena -1.5 137.8 44% 55–52 ✓
Idaho @ Montana +13.4 136.7 87% 64–69 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Army +6.1 136.4 74% 67–63 ✗
SE Louisiana @ LSU New Orleans +4.5 149.4 70% 63–80 ✓
Butler @ Xavier +4.8 132.5 68% 70–69 ✗
Kansas State @ TCU +3.7 128.8 65% 71–50 ✗
Charlotte @ UTSA +4.1 139.4 67% 62–72 ✓
Duke @ Louisville -1.2 141.4 46% 70–56 ✓
Minnesota @ Northwestern +0.0 142.0 50% 51–46 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.