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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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17–10 on winners spread MAE 11.4 47 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
SIU Edwardsville @ LSU	—	—	—	81–94	—
Boston College @ Rhode Island	+0.4	144.8	51%	69–64	✗
Queens University @ George Mason	—	—	—	65–66	—
Mississippi Valley State @ North Texas	—	—	—	62–116	—
Utah State @ South Dakota State	+4.9	143.6	67%	59–83	✓
Purdue @ Clemson	-1.7	124.9	41%	70–81	✗
LSU New Orleans @ BYU	—	—	—	61–86	—
Villanova @ Arizona State	-0.5	147.2	47%	83–74	✓
Auburn @ Gonzaga	+2.0	158.2	58%	67–90	✓
East Tennessee State @ Middle Tennessee	+1.9	123.2	58%	57–43	✗
Virginia @ San Francisco	-7.4	140.9	24%	60–61	✗
Norfolk State @ James Madison	—	—	—	83–73	—
Toledo @ Xavier	+6.3	130.8	71%	73–76	✓
Ohio @ Illinois	+13.6	152.4	85%	75–77	✓
Jacksonville State @ Florida Atlantic	+4.9	137.0	68%	60–50	✗
Evansville @ Prairie View A&M	+2.6	131.5	59%	61–64	✓
Western Carolina @ Troy	—	—	—	64–66	—
Western Kentucky @ West Virginia	+1.8	146.3	58%	64–70	✓
Saint Joseph's @ Kansas	-1.6	155.8	43%	72–94	✗
Sam Houston @ Texas Tech	+19.1	150.9	89%	52–84	✓
Army @ Central Connecticut	—	—	—	79–57	—
Eastern Kentucky @ Charleston Southern	-7.6	143.6	23%	60–50	✓
Lamar @ Tulane	—	—	—	57–66	—
Rice @ Incarnate Word	—	—	—	68–53	—
Austin Peay @ Abilene Christian	+5.3	131.6	70%	72–80	✓
George Mason @ Belmont	—	—	—	67–77	—
South Dakota @ Drake	+11.3	143.5	84%	53–69	✓
Boise State @ Houston	—	—	—	58–68	—
Pepperdine @ UCLA	-4.1	140.5	32%	98–107	✗
East Carolina @ Charlotte	—	—	—	66–57	—
Navy @ Maryland	+10.6	146.5	82%	52–82	✓
Bryant @ Syracuse	—	—	—	84–85	—
Oakland @ Bradley	+15.3	130.5	85%	60–74	✓
UNC Wilmington @ UNC Asheville	—	—	—	76–68	—
North Carolina A&T @ Chicago State	+2.1	146.6	60%	74–44	✗
UC Davis @ Santa Clara	+10.3	141.6	79%	63–66	✓
Saint Peter's @ La Salle	-5.5	142.6	30%	62–51	✓
Arkansas State @ Marshall	—	—	—	56–70	—
Seton Hall @ Louisville	—	—	—	70–71	—
Utah State @ Northern Iowa	+3.2	143.4	61%	82–71	✗
Buffalo @ Towson	—	—	—	74–65	—
Southern @ Iowa	+17.4	150.1	89%	76–103	✓
Howard @ Queens University	—	—	—	71–85	—
Grambling @ Arizona	—	—	—	55–74	—
North Florida @ NC State	+18.7	146.3	89%	51–86	✓
Morehead State @ Richmond	—	—	—	64–82	—
South Dakota State @ Saint Mary's	-3.1	131.8	38%	59–72	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.