Middle Tennessee
Blue Raiders
43
–
57
FINAL
Neutral
Gulf Coast Showcase
East Tennessee State
Buccaneers
Betting Lines
| Spread | ETSU -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.0 Under |
| Money | MTSU +100 ETSU -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETSU +14 | 100 | Lost |
| Massey | MTSU -3.4 (-17.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.9 (-26.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTSU -1.9 (-15.9) | 123.2 (-23.2) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTSU -0.9 (-14.9) | 128.8 (-28.8) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MTSU -1.7 (-15.7) | 125.2 (-25.2) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTSU | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 0-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#99) | -5.0 (#135) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.57 (#155) | -1.33 (#153) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.79 (#153) | -1.72 (#152) |
| RPI | 0.250 (#25) | 0.562 (#15) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTSU | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 32.2% | 36.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 24.0% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.53 | 0.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 38.1% | 41.7% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 28.2% |
| ORB% | 20.5% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.7% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 28.4% | 22.3% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 65.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.8% | 29.7% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.