Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | SDST +120 USU -140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDST +24 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | SDST -6.9 (+17.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.3 (-11.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -4.9 (+19.1) | 143.6 (-1.6) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -3.7 (+20.3) | 143.0 (-1.0) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -4.6 (+19.4) | 141.7 (+0.3) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDST | USU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-7 | 20-9 |
| Conference | 9-3 | 15-4 |
| Home | 8-1 | 10-2 |
| Away | 4-2 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.9 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 62.3 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#88) | -7.4 (#148) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.65 (#137) | -1.54 (#154) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.75 (#136) | -2.43 (#155) |
| RPI | 0.750 (#3) | 0.250 (#25) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDST | USU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 23.5% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 24.5% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 35.1% |
| FT Rate | 16.1% | 30.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.2% | 62.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 4.3% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 62.2% | 84.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.3% | 35.8% |
Game Analysis
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