Betting Lines
| Spread | NCSU -20.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCSU +35 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | NCSU -27.9 (+7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.4 (-12.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -22.5 (+12.5) | 144.4 (-7.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCSU -18.7 (+16.3) | 146.3 (-9.3) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | UNF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-11 | 8-15 |
| Conference | 9-8 | 6-6 |
| Home | 7-4 | 5-3 |
| Away | 5-5 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 68.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 75.3 |
| Massey | 5.2 (#38) | -4.3 (#128) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.39 (#47) | -1.06 (#147) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.61 (#48) | -1.55 (#146) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | UNF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.5% | 38.9% |
| 3PT% | 47.8% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 0.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.6% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 28.0% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 25.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 27.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 38.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 40.3% | 12.8% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 56.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.8% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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