Betting Lines
| Spread | UNI -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.0 Over |
| Money | UNI -155 USU +135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +11 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | UNI -4.6 (-15.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.7 (-3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNI -3.2 (-14.2) | 143.4 (+9.6) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNI -0.7 (-11.7) | 146.6 (+6.4) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNI -2.4 (-13.4) | 144.4 (+8.6) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNI | USU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-15 | 20-9 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 15-4 |
| Home | 6-5 | 10-2 |
| Away | 3-7 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Streak | W3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.3 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 62.3 |
| Massey | -2.9 (#111) | -7.4 (#148) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.04 (#169) | -1.54 (#154) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.84 (#167) | -2.43 (#155) |
| RPI | 0.312 (#21) | 0.250 (#25) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNI | USU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 49.1% | 23.5% |
| REB / G | 28.0 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 5.0 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.1% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 22.6% | 24.5% |
| ORB% | 16.1% | 35.1% |
| FT Rate | 12.3% | 30.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 62.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 84.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.4% | 35.8% |
Game Analysis
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