Betting Lines
| Spread | BRAD -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.0 Over |
| Money | BRAD -1300 OAK +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BRAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRAD +14 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | BRAD -26.7 (-12.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.6 (+2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRAD -15.3 (-1.3) | 130.5 (+3.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRAD -12.8 (+1.2) | 131.4 (+2.6) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRAD -17.0 (-3.0) | 129.1 (+4.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BRAD -19.0 (-5.0) | 130.7 (+3.3) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BRAD | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-16 | 12-18 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 10-10 |
| Home | 8-6 | 5-4 |
| Away | 2-9 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.2 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 81.2 |
| Massey | 9.2 (#12) | -17.5 (#168) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.11 (#17) | -1.81 (#157) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.72 (#17) | -2.70 (#161) |
| RPI | 0.719 (#9) | 0.312 (#21) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BRAD | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.9% | 26.7% |
| 3PT% | 29.7% | 16.7% |
| REB / G | 41.5 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.4% | 30.4% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 22.1% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 8.2% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 39.8% | 64.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 61.8% | 65.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 6.2% | 7.5% |
Game Analysis
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