Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 170.0 Under |
| Money | GONZ -2000 AUB +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GONZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +23 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | GONZ -2.3 (+20.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 176.2 (-19.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -1.8 (+21.2) | 155.6 (+1.4) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -2.0 (+21.0) | 158.2 (-1.2) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GONZ | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-1 | 13-14 |
| Conference | 15-0 | 7-11 |
| Home | 12-0 | 8-5 |
| Away | 7-0 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 12-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 91.0 | 77.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 76.4 |
| Massey | 4.0 (#46) | 1.7 (#71) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.06 (#23) | 1.06 (#26) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.54 (#23) | 1.43 (#28) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GONZ | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 64.5% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 28.1% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 56.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.0 | 21.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 69.4% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 24.0% | 44.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 42.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.7% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 84.4% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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