Betting Lines
| Spread | SCU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.0 Under |
| Money | SCU -320 UCD +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SCU +3 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | SCU -19.2 (-16.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.1 (-21.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SCU -13.3 (-10.3) | 136.6 (-7.6) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SCU -10.3 (-7.3) | 141.6 (-12.6) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SCU | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-8 | 10-8 |
| Conference | 4-5 | 6-4 |
| Home | 6-3 | 4-3 |
| Away | 4-3 | 4-3 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.7 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 72.2 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#103) | -2.7 (#109) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.39 (#54) | -1.06 (#146) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.54 (#68) | -1.49 (#143) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SCU | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 59.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 66.3% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 24.5% |
| ORB% | 25.7% | 22.2% |
| FT Rate | 17.9% | 57.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.9% | 56.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 30.9% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.3% | 43.1% |
Game Analysis
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