Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.0 Under |
| Money | SMC +100 SDST -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +13 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | SDST -4.2 (+17.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.4 (-7.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -3.1 (+16.1) | 131.8 (-0.8) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -1.4 (+14.4) | 135.1 (-4.1) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -2.6 (+15.6) | 134.0 (-3.0) | 39% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-10 | 16-7 |
| Conference | 4-6 | 9-3 |
| Home | 9-3 | 8-1 |
| Away | 2-3 | 4-2 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.2 | 79.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.6 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -4.8 (#134) | -0.6 (#88) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.57 (#136) | -0.65 (#137) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.20 (#138) | -0.75 (#136) |
| RPI | 0.312 (#21) | 0.750 (#3) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.4% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 21.3% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.67 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.7% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 16.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 44.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 4.3% |
| DRB% | 79.1% | 62.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 11.0% | 14.3% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.