Betting Lines
| Spread | SPU -2.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SPU +11 | 113 | Lost |
| Massey | SPU -8.0 (-3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.4 (-37.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SPU -4.5 (-6.5) | 139.5 (-26.5) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SPU -5.5 (-5.5) | 142.6 (-29.6) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAS | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-16 | 14-11 |
| Conference | 6-11 | 10-8 |
| Home | 6-3 | 8-3 |
| Away | 3-11 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 63.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.0 | 61.5 |
| Massey | -1.7 (#102) | 6.3 (#26) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.32 (#88) | -0.32 (#89) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.51 (#100) | -0.19 (#85) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAS | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.9% | 50.8% |
| 3PT% | 26.1% | 42.9% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.38 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.4% | 58.5% |
| TOV% | 31.6% | 23.4% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 31.5% | 10.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.3% | 24.0% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 54.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.3% | 35.6% |
Game Analysis
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