Betting Lines
| Spread | PV -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.0 Under |
| Money | PV -145 EVAN +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PV +3 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | PV -3.9 (-0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.3 (-12.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PV -2.7 (+0.3) | 130.6 (-5.6) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PV -2.6 (+0.4) | 131.5 (-6.5) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PV | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-5 | 9-16 |
| Conference | 13-0 | 7-11 |
| Home | 8-0 | 8-4 |
| Away | 5-3 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 64.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.2 | 69.6 |
| Massey | -1.7 (#100) | -5.6 (#139) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.06 (#148) | -0.39 (#96) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.43 (#140) | -0.61 (#125) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PV | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.1% | 29.8% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 23.1% |
| REB / G | 26.0 | 18.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 3.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.58 | 0.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.4% | 36.2% |
| TOV% | 33.4% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 7.5% |
| FT Rate | 7.3% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 64.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 28.0% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 51.5% | 62.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 45.1% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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