Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -16.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.0 Over |
| Money | ILL -1800 OHIO +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +2 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -28.7 (-26.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.6 (-0.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -13.6 (-11.6) | 152.4 (-0.4) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -9.7 (-7.7) | 154.0 (-2.0) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -13.9 (-11.9) | 150.2 (+1.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -15.0 (-13.0) | 149.1 (+2.9) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-7 | 17-8 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 9-5 |
| Home | 11-2 | 8-3 |
| Away | 9-3 | 4-4 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.5 | 78.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 19.0 (#2) | 8.6 (#14) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.37 (#82) | 2.20 (#2) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.55 (#63) | 3.09 (#2) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#16) | 0.500 (#16) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 59.3% | 50.9% |
| 3PT% | 49.0% | 39.6% |
| REB / G | 58.5 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 18.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 68.1% | 60.3% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 24.1% |
| ORB% | 62.1% | 37.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 29.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 35.2% | 42.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 21.8% |
| DRB% | 93.1% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.7% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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