Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -15.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | SF +900 UVA -1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SF +1 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -13.5 (+14.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.8 (-24.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -7.4 (+8.4) | 140.9 (-19.9) | 24% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -5.4 (+6.4) | 135.9 (-14.9) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -7.7 (+8.7) | 139.4 (-18.4) | 27% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SF | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-14 | 18-7 |
| Conference | 4-9 | 13-4 |
| Home | 3-5 | 10-1 |
| Away | 4-6 | 6-3 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 58.2 |
| Massey | -2.1 (#107) | 11.4 (#6) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.17 (#86) | 0.65 (#32) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.23 (#86) | 0.91 (#33) |
| RPI | 0.250 (#25) | 0.250 (#25) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SF | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 55.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 51.7% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 2.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 67.5% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 9.5% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 6.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 43.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.7% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 60.0% | 78.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 41.2% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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