Betting Lines
| Spread | NCAT -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.0 Under |
| Money | CHST +550 NCAT -800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CHST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCAT +30 | 118 | Lost |
| Massey | CHST -3.4 (-33.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.9 (-36.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CHST -2.1 (-32.1) | 146.6 (-28.6) | 60% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CHST -2.1 (-32.1) | 133.7 (-15.7) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CHST -2.2 (-32.2) | 143.1 (-25.1) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CHST -1.8 (-31.8) | 146.9 (-28.9) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CHST | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Massey | -12.1 (#162) | -15.5 (#167) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.77 (#138) | -1.81 (#156) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.08 (#137) | -2.57 (#157) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#16) | 0.500 (#16) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CHST | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 31.5% | 37.0% |
| 3PT% | 18.2% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 18.5 | 24.5 |
| OREB / G | 5.5 | 6.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.50 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 35.1% | 42.5% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 14.9% | 15.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 66.2% | 63.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.1% | 22.3% |
| DRB% | 51.0% | 50.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.2% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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