Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | CLEM +125 PUR -145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CLEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CLEM +11 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -4.0 (+15.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 120.4 (+30.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -1.7 (+12.7) | 124.9 (+26.1) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -1.7 (+12.7) | 127.2 (+23.8) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -1.1 (+12.1) | 125.9 (+25.1) | 46% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CLEM | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-8 | 18-10 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 13-6 |
| Home | 11-1 | 11-1 |
| Away | 2-5 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.9 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.9 | 66.7 |
| Massey | 2.0 (#66) | 6.0 (#28) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.65 (#33) | 1.54 (#15) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.79 (#34) | 2.39 (#14) |
| RPI | 0.250 (#25) | 0.750 (#3) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CLEM | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.2% | 58.5% |
| 3PT% | 20.0% | 50.0% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 5.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 39.8% | 67.0% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 23.1% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 22.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.5% | 11.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 34.0% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 28.9% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 62.8% | 78.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.0% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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