Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -6.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.0 Under |
| Money | ASU +220 VILL -260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ASU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +9 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | VILL -1.0 (-8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.2 (-1.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -0.7 (-8.3) | 145.0 (+12.0) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -0.5 (-8.5) | 147.2 (+9.8) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ASU | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-14 | 18-7 |
| Conference | 7-10 | 11-4 |
| Home | 7-6 | 9-0 |
| Away | 2-6 | 4-4 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.3 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.1 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 2.0 (#67) | 3.0 (#57) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.06 (#25) | 1.06 (#28) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.45 (#27) | 1.50 (#25) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ASU | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 50.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 15.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 1.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 56.7% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 12.4% |
| ORB% | 35.7% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 55.7% | 13.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.8% | 54.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 78.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 37.5% | 12.7% |
Game Analysis
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