Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -9.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.0 Over |
| Money | XAV -440 TOL +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +3 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -15.4 (-12.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.4 (+19.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -6.3 (-3.3) | 130.8 (+18.2) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -3.9 (-0.9) | 139.0 (+10.0) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -7.2 (-4.2) | 132.1 (+16.9) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -7.0 (-4.0) | 134.6 (+14.4) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-8 | 21-9 |
| Conference | 6-7 | 15-4 |
| Home | 11-2 | 12-1 |
| Away | 2-5 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 81.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 2.7 (#63) | 5.6 (#33) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.97 (#29) | -0.27 (#87) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.96 (#32) | 0.02 (#84) |
| RPI | 0.688 (#11) | 0.312 (#21) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 39.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 42.9% |
| REB / G | 46.0 | 42.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 15.5 |
| AST / TO | 2.09 | 1.52 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 38.8% |
| FT Rate | 4.5% | 9.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 33.0% | 39.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 23.0% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 9.1% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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