Betting Lines
| Spread | APSU -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.0 Over |
| Money | ACU +120 APSU -140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ACU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ACU +8 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | ACU -9.1 (-1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.6 (+14.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ACU -5.3 (+2.7) | 131.6 (+20.4) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ACU -6.3 (+1.7) | 135.6 (+16.4) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ACU -4.3 (+3.7) | 131.2 (+20.8) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ACU | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-5 | 14-13 |
| Conference | 13-2 | 10-10 |
| Home | 13-0 | 8-5 |
| Away | 5-4 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 6-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.6 | 71.4 |
| Massey | 9.0 (#13) | -0.1 (#84) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.94 (#30) | 1.86 (#14) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.54 (#24) | 2.25 (#16) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#16) | 0.750 (#3) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ACU | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 56.5% | 28.1% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 39.5 |
| OREB / G | 6.0 | 15.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.66 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 45.0% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 24.0% |
| ORB% | 18.2% | 39.0% |
| FT Rate | 34.7% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 32.4% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 32.4% | 24.2% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.5% | 16.9% |
Game Analysis
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