Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MD +30 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | MD -22.0 (+8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.5 (-15.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MD -12.9 (+17.1) | 145.3 (-11.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MD -10.6 (+19.4) | 146.5 (-12.5) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Massey | -0.1 (#85) | -3.8 (#121) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.39 (#68) | 0.39 (#72) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.57 (#59) | 0.49 (#75) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 43.5% | 41.7% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 2.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.6% | 55.4% |
| TOV% | 12.8% | 13.2% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 9.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.4% | 55.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 22.9% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.7% | 27.5% |
Game Analysis
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