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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
27–7 on winners
spread MAE 9.8
34 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DePaul
@
LSU
|
+10.5 | 154.3 | 79% | 63–96 | ✓ |
Little Rock
@
Southern Illinois
|
+13.8 | 146.7 | 86% | 65–74 | ✓ |
Milwaukee
@
Akron
|
+16.6 | 160.0 | 89% | 81–105 | ✓ |
UAlbany
@
Fordham
|
+2.7 | 129.6 | 67% | 68–88 | ✓ |
Sacramento State
@
Pacific
|
+14.0 | 139.0 | 87% | 54–68 | ✓ |
California Baptist
@
Oregon State
|
-4.2 | 137.7 | 38% | 75–69 | ✓ |
Le Moyne
@
Ball State
|
-5.1 | 132.6 | 35% | 85–96 | ✗ |
Merrimack
@
La Salle
|
+1.9 | 134.5 | 56% | 66–60 | ✗ |
Saint Joseph's
@
Princeton
|
+1.5 | 147.9 | 61% | 60–58 | ✗ |
Siena
@
Maine
|
-7.5 | 124.2 | 25% | 64–60 | ✓ |
App State
@
UNC Asheville
|
+2.6 | 134.2 | 50% | 55–67 | ✓ |
South Alabama
@
UTSA
|
+0.7 | 135.3 | 53% | 82–58 | ✗ |
Tennessee State
@
Chattanooga
|
-1.6 | 143.2 | 49% | 70–64 | ✓ |
Old Dominion
@
William & Mary
|
+11.2 | 154.3 | 85% | 75–88 | ✓ |
Stetson
@
Robert Morris
|
+14.6 | 139.4 | 88% | 62–80 | ✓ |
New Hampshire
@
Fairfield
|
+11.8 | 138.0 | 87% | 68–72 | ✓ |
Stonehill
@
Quinnipiac
|
+10.9 | 146.5 | 84% | 62–76 | ✓ |
Yale
@
Vermont
|
-5.2 | 150.1 | 29% | 77–74 | ✓ |
Cornell
@
Bucknell
|
-1.4 | 157.5 | 40% | 101–72 | ✓ |
Monmouth
@
Lafayette
|
-5.8 | 140.1 | 26% | 88–74 | ✓ |
Hofstra
@
Pennsylvania
|
-1.2 | 149.1 | 47% | 77–60 | ✓ |
Wyoming
@
Texas Tech
|
+11.2 | 146.3 | 80% | 72–76 | ✓ |
Mercyhurst
@
West Virginia
|
+16.0 | 130.2 | 89% | 38–70 | ✓ |
Fordham
@
Colgate
|
+3.7 | 134.4 | 62% | 62–72 | ✓ |
Alabama A&M
@
Coastal Carolina
|
+8.6 | 136.1 | 83% | 60–67 | ✓ |
St. Bonaventure
@
Florida Atlantic
|
+6.6 | 144.2 | 68% | 70–65 | ✗ |
Belmont
@
Charleston
|
-3.5 | 141.0 | 43% | 96–73 | ✓ |
Prairie View A&M
@
North Texas
|
+12.2 | 137.0 | 87% | 69–72 | ✓ |
Longwood
@
American University
|
+4.0 | 147.1 | 68% | 66–92 | ✓ |
Presbyterian
@
The Citadel
|
-3.6 | 128.6 | 34% | 69–41 | ✓ |
UC Irvine
@
San José State
|
+0.0 | 132.8 | 58% | 72–63 | ✗ |
San Diego
@
Long Beach State
|
+2.4 | 139.5 | 63% | 72–76 | ✓ |
Cal State Bakersfield
@
Fresno State
|
+8.4 | 142.3 | 78% | 76–71 | ✗ |
Coppin State
@
Loyola Maryland
|
+10.8 | 141.4 | 87% | 84–95 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.