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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
22–9 on winners
spread MAE 8.0
31 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UNC Asheville
@
Winthrop
|
+10.7 | 150.1 | 83% | 80–84 | ✓ |
Bradley
@
Valparaiso
|
-4.7 | 130.5 | 38% | 85–91 | ✗ |
Michigan State
@
Rutgers
|
+3.8 | 138.5 | 69% | 37–67 | ✓ |
Louisiana Tech
@
Southern Miss
|
-3.1 | 131.2 | 29% | 76–63 | ✓ |
UTEP
@
UTSA
|
+0.2 | 145.3 | 53% | 79–86 | ✓ |
TCU
@
Kansas
|
+10.4 | 135.2 | 85% | 51–59 | ✓ |
Memphis
@
SMU
|
+4.0 | 140.6 | 68% | 65–67 | ✓ |
Tennessee State
@
Murray State
|
+7.1 | 133.0 | 74% | 53–73 | ✓ |
Morehead State
@
Jacksonville State
|
+3.1 | 132.7 | 53% | 85–66 | ✗ |
Gonzaga
@
San Diego
|
-16.6 | 158.2 | 15% | 90–62 | ✓ |
Houston
@
Tulane
|
-13.0 | 129.6 | 17% | 83–60 | ✓ |
Wyoming
@
San Diego State
|
+14.4 | 144.2 | 89% | 57–87 | ✓ |
SIU Edwardsville
@
Southeast Missouri State
|
+1.4 | 139.0 | 59% | 62–64 | ✓ |
Eastern Illinois
@
UT Martin
|
-6.1 | 142.5 | 30% | 41–51 | ✗ |
Belmont
@
Austin Peay
|
-7.7 | 149.4 | 22% | 81–76 | ✓ |
UAB
@
Middle Tennessee
|
-10.4 | 129.9 | 16% | 70–59 | ✓ |
Weber State
@
Idaho
|
-12.7 | 146.6 | 14% | 81–56 | ✓ |
Air Force
@
San José State
|
-1.4 | 135.2 | 56% | 58–59 | ✗ |
Stanford
@
Arizona
|
+5.8 | 143.4 | 77% | 73–64 | ✗ |
California
@
Arizona State
|
+4.1 | 141.4 | 68% | 68–72 | ✓ |
New Mexico
@
Fresno State
|
+6.7 | 127.0 | 80% | 62–64 | ✓ |
North Texas
@
Rice
|
-2.2 | 134.8 | 39% | 79–74 | ✓ |
Monmouth
@
Niagara
|
-1.3 | 143.8 | 36% | 77–67 | ✓ |
Detroit Mercy
@
Youngstown State
|
+0.9 | 144.0 | 54% | 78–75 | ✗ |
Louisiana
@
Texas State
|
+3.5 | 131.7 | 57% | 62–60 | ✗ |
|
UNC Asheville
@
Winthrop
|
+10.7 | 150.4 | 83% | 57–55 | ✗ |
Milwaukee
@
IU Indianapolis
|
-2.8 | 143.4 | 41% | 68–73 | ✗ |
UIC
@
Northern Kentucky
|
+2.3 | 137.9 | 71% | 68–72 | ✓ |
Longwood
@
Presbyterian
|
-2.1 | 122.4 | 34% | 49–45 | ✓ |
Bellarmine
@
Kennesaw State
|
-7.3 | 131.9 | 19% | 84–67 | ✓ |
Florida International
@
Charlotte
|
+6.3 | 139.4 | 79% | 55–63 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.