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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
23–9 on winners
spread MAE 9.1
32 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
North Carolina Central
@
South Carolina State
|
+8.4 | 145.4 | 81% | 67–88 | ✓ |
Bethune-Cookman
@
Jackson State
|
+1.5 | 138.7 | 56% | 50–71 | ✓ |
Mount St. Mary's
@
Merrimack
|
+3.0 | 129.2 | 65% | 57–55 | ✗ |
Purdue
@
Michigan
|
+0.3 | 144.6 | 46% | 68–86 | ✓ |
East Carolina
@
UAB
|
+3.5 | 153.0 | 63% | 77–94 | ✓ |
Seattle U
@
Utah Valley
|
+4.4 | 133.7 | 69% | 55–68 | ✓ |
UC Santa Barbara
@
UC San Diego
|
+12.8 | 139.4 | 87% | 51–69 | ✓ |
Arizona
@
Texas Tech
|
+3.7 | 157.1 | 63% | 86–80 | ✗ |
Clemson
@
Louisville
|
+0.7 | 136.3 | 55% | 73–76 | ✓ |
UConn
@
Creighton
|
-0.6 | 143.1 | 47% | 62–71 | ✗ |
Boise State
@
New Mexico
|
+2.5 | 141.6 | 62% | 72–69 | ✗ |
Kentucky
@
Alabama
|
+8.4 | 176.6 | 69% | 70–99 | ✓ |
California Baptist
@
Grand Canyon
|
+6.7 | 140.7 | 77% | 66–75 | ✓ |
Cal Poly
@
UC Irvine
|
+12.3 | 156.7 | 86% | 78–96 | ✓ |
Utah State
@
Colorado State
|
+0.9 | 145.4 | 52% | 72–83 | ✓ |
Maine
@
Bryant
|
+6.9 | 144.0 | 76% | 59–79 | ✓ |
Princeton
@
Yale
|
+8.9 | 144.7 | 84% | 57–59 | ✓ |
Tennessee
@
Auburn
|
+5.5 | 141.9 | 72% | 70–65 | ✗ |
Wisconsin
@
Michigan State
|
+4.3 | 141.1 | 67% | 77–74 | ✗ |
South Carolina State
@
Norfolk State
|
+0.6 | 143.5 | 54% | 65–66 | ✓ |
Loyola Chicago
@
VCU
|
+10.4 | 136.6 | 84% | 55–62 | ✓ |
Dartmouth
@
Cornell
|
+4.3 | 154.5 | 69% | 71–87 | ✓ |
Tulane
@
Memphis
|
+10.7 | 148.1 | 86% | 77–78 | ✓ |
Saint Joseph's
@
George Mason
|
+1.6 | 132.8 | 59% | 64–74 | ✓ |
Michigan
@
Maryland
|
+5.5 | 143.2 | 70% | 81–80 | ✗ |
Alabama
@
Florida
|
+7.5 | 178.6 | 63% | 82–104 | ✓ |
UAB
@
North Texas
|
+4.5 | 134.0 | 72% | 66–56 | ✗ |
|
Boise State
@
Colorado State
|
+0.4 | 138.1 | 56% | 56–69 | ✓ |
Arizona
@
Houston
|
+7.9 | 133.5 | 78% | 64–72 | ✓ |
Creighton
@
St. John's
|
+8.9 | 146.3 | 81% | 66–82 | ✓ |
Mount St. Mary's
@
Iona
|
+0.5 | 137.0 | 54% | 63–49 | ✗ |
Miami (OH)
@
Akron
|
+4.6 | 158.5 | 69% | 74–76 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.