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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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28–5 on winners spread MAE 11.1 44 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Arkansas @ Michigan State +3.3 149.4 47% 66–69 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Wichita State — — — 62–105 —
Queens University @ Villanova +7.0 135.1 74% 74–94 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Tarleton State +0.3 142.3 39% 77–85 ✓
Weber State @ Utah — — — 89–92 —
Army @ St. Thomas-Minnesota — — — 76–83 —
Central Michigan @ Bradley +3.0 134.8 69% 54–85 ✓
Bellarmine @ Kansas State +20.5 148.1 88% 71–98 ✓
Tennessee State @ Belmont — — — 79–87 —
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Southern Utah +4.8 144.8 70% 95–72 ✗
Holy Cross @ BYU +10.1 139.6 80% 53–98 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Loyola Marymount +14.9 134.0 85% 72–94 ✓
Chattanooga @ UNLV +3.3 148.1 72% 69–101 ✓
Houston Christian @ UC San Diego — — — 60–78 —
Cal Poly @ Seattle U +18.0 147.3 87% 73–71 ✗
Pacific @ Nevada — — — 77–78 —
Oklahoma @ Gonzaga +17.3 142.0 85% 68–83 ✓
New Hampshire @ Harvard — — — 75–86 —
Western Michigan @ Campbell +3.4 143.2 67% 82–91 ✓
North Carolina Central @ App State +8.0 147.9 74% 54–76 ✓
Indiana @ Marquette -3.3 141.7 38% 100–77 ✓
Coppin State @ James Madison +14.9 144.0 87% 70–84 ✓
Pennsylvania @ American University — — — 78–84 —
Morehead State @ Georgia +33.5 142.4 91% 81–120 ✓
Lipscomb @ Mercer +11.3 139.4 84% 77–92 ✓
Le Moyne @ Bowling Green +19.0 137.3 85% 60–83 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ North Dakota +4.8 139.6 76% 93–85 ✗
South Dakota State @ Northern Iowa +13.9 139.0 82% 58–65 ✓
Vermont @ Brown — — — 89–84 —
Marist @ Dartmouth — — — 75–56 —
Texas A&M @ Oklahoma State +5.7 154.2 71% 63–87 ✓
Cornell @ Illinois State +7.6 143.6 80% 65–76 ✓
Denver @ Montana State +5.9 143.8 72% 75–73 ✗
Lehigh @ West Virginia +11.5 133.7 82% 47–69 ✓
Utah Tech @ Arizona State +11.1 143.5 80% 66–81 ✓
VMI @ Missouri +12.7 151.4 80% 68–106 ✓
North Texas @ Loyola Chicago -8.0 140.0 25% 64–62 ✓
UC Davis @ Portland +6.1 149.7 67% 63–67 ✓
Idaho State @ San Diego State +13.6 129.6 77% 57–73 ✓
Grambling @ Howard +0.0 147.3 47% 73–70 ✗
Florida Atlantic @ Liberty +5.3 152.7 69% 68–88 ✓
Manhattan @ USC — — — 83–114 —
Omaha @ Colorado State +15.7 145.9 83% 74–97 ✓
Southern Miss @ South Carolina +16.8 149.0 83% 79–83 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.