And with the way you look I understand you're not impressed. "Alison" - Elvis Costello
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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18–8 on winners spread MAE 12.2 26 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Northwestern @ Ohio State +6.5 145.1 76% 71–81 ✓
Rhode Island @ Massachusetts +1.1 157.5 56% 78–80 ✓
Tulsa @ Wichita State +2.7 138.7 61% 53–72 ✓
La Salle @ George Mason +0.4 135.9 49% 42–75 ✓
Duquesne @ Dayton +5.7 132.0 75% 63–72 ✓
Auburn @ Georgia +5.1 154.0 67% 95–77 ✗
Arkansas @ LSU +2.8 163.1 70% 76–92 ✓
Wofford @ VMI -0.7 143.7 45% 80–78 ✓
Mercer @ Chattanooga +1.0 149.7 59% 80–83 ✓
Nicholls @ Northwestern State -6.9 153.0 28% 76–66 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Stephen F. Austin +0.7 147.8 57% 69–95 ✓
Lamar @ Sam Houston +12.1 145.3 86% 71–96 ✓
McNeese @ Incarnate Word +8.0 145.6 84% 61–83 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ SE Louisiana +1.9 132.7 62% 63–76 ✓
Louisville @ Wake Forest +0.1 136.4 43% 77–65 ✗
Texas Tech @ Texas +4.5 142.5 66% 79–77 ✗
New Mexico @ Utah Tech +4.5 143.8 62% 72–63 ✗
Boise State @ Wyoming -14.2 152.5 15% 90–70 ✓
Texas A&M @ Mississippi State +7.8 138.1 79% 56–55 ✗
UCF @ Temple -2.0 136.6 41% 55–62 ✗
California @ Colorado +17.7 139.3 90% 60–89 ✓
Charleston Southern @ UNC Asheville +11.4 140.5 85% 54–92 ✓
Stanford @ Utah -0.7 135.0 49% 65–79 ✗
Washington State @ UCLA +8.9 139.2 81% 61–91 ✓
Santa Clara @ Pacific +0.5 135.3 50% 58–79 ✓
Hampton @ South Carolina Upstate +3.1 140.7 58% 69–68 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.