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Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
20–1 on winners
spread MAE 10.8
21 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+7.1 | 141.3 | 76% | 54–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.1 | 147.3 | 82% | 67–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.1 | 146.3 | 72% | 57–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.3 | 142.7 | 51% | 62–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.9 | 151.1 | 88% | 66–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.0 | 141.5 | 63% | 63–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.1 | 150.2 | 87% | 88–64 | ✗ |
|
|
+9.2 | 144.2 | 81% | 61–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+18.5 | 148.2 | 90% | 63–96 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.6 | 138.7 | 80% | 46–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.6 | 143.2 | 60% | 70–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.4 | 145.9 | 87% | 74–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+15.5 | 135.2 | 87% | 62–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.3 | 142.9 | 64% | 75–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.7 | 141.3 | 66% | 69–79 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.7 | 147.1 | 43% | 85–65 | ✓ |
|
|
-10.7 | 149.1 | 18% | 84–77 | ✓ |
|
|
-15.7 | 128.6 | 15% | 68–54 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.0 | 162.7 | 37% | 94–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.5 | 135.8 | 86% | 68–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.8 | 145.8 | 57% | 73–105 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.