I have got the sharpest knife, so I get the biggest slice. "Revolution Rock" - The Clash
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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17–10 on winners spread MAE 10.9 47 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
SIU Edwardsville @ LSU — — — 81–94 —
Boston College @ Rhode Island +0.1 141.9 45% 69–64 ✗
Queens University @ George Mason — — — 65–66 —
Mississippi Valley State @ North Texas — — — 62–116 —
Utah State @ South Dakota State +4.6 141.7 66% 59–83 ✓
Purdue @ Clemson -1.1 125.9 46% 70–81 ✗
LSU New Orleans @ BYU — — — 61–86 —
Villanova @ Arizona State -0.7 145.0 40% 83–74 ✓
Auburn @ Gonzaga +1.8 155.6 61% 67–90 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Middle Tennessee +1.7 125.2 53% 57–43 ✗
Virginia @ San Francisco -7.7 139.4 27% 60–61 ✗
Norfolk State @ James Madison — — — 83–73 —
Toledo @ Xavier +7.0 134.6 76% 73–76 ✓
Ohio @ Illinois +15.0 149.1 85% 75–77 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Florida Atlantic +4.4 133.3 73% 60–50 ✗
Evansville @ Prairie View A&M +2.7 130.6 72% 61–64 ✓
Western Carolina @ Troy — — — 64–66 —
Western Kentucky @ West Virginia +2.2 144.5 64% 64–70 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Kansas -1.4 152.5 46% 72–94 ✗
Sam Houston @ Texas Tech +26.5 149.3 89% 52–84 ✓
Army @ Central Connecticut — — — 79–57 —
Eastern Kentucky @ Charleston Southern -7.8 141.2 19% 60–50 ✓
Lamar @ Tulane — — — 57–66 —
Rice @ Incarnate Word — — — 68–53 —
Austin Peay @ Abilene Christian +4.3 131.2 71% 72–80 ✓
George Mason @ Belmont — — — 67–77 —
South Dakota @ Drake +12.7 140.7 82% 53–69 ✓
Boise State @ Houston — — — 58–68 —
Pepperdine @ UCLA -3.5 138.2 39% 98–107 ✗
East Carolina @ Charlotte — — — 66–57 —
Navy @ Maryland +12.9 145.3 82% 52–82 ✓
Bryant @ Syracuse — — — 84–85 —
Oakland @ Bradley +19.0 130.7 86% 60–74 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ UNC Asheville — — — 76–68 —
North Carolina A&T @ Chicago State +1.8 146.9 55% 74–44 ✗
UC Davis @ Santa Clara +13.3 136.6 81% 63–66 ✓
Saint Peter's @ La Salle -4.5 139.5 28% 62–51 ✓
Arkansas State @ Marshall — — — 56–70 —
Seton Hall @ Louisville — — — 70–71 —
Utah State @ Northern Iowa +2.4 144.4 63% 82–71 ✗
Buffalo @ Towson — — — 74–65 —
Southern @ Iowa +20.8 150.3 87% 76–103 ✓
Howard @ Queens University — — — 71–85 —
Grambling @ Arizona — — — 55–74 —
North Florida @ NC State +22.5 144.4 89% 51–86 ✓
Morehead State @ Richmond — — — 64–82 —
South Dakota State @ Saint Mary's -2.6 134.0 39% 59–72 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.