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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
19–8 on winners
spread MAE 8.8
27 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Purdue
@
Nebraska
|
+0.9 | 144.9 | 53% | 80–77 | ✗ |
North Carolina
@
Miami
|
-0.0 | 156.8 | 50% | 66–75 | ✗ |
Virginia
@
Florida State
|
-10.2 | 159.9 | 18% | 61–58 | ✓ |
Vanderbilt
@
Auburn
|
-1.3 | 168.5 | 45% | 84–76 | ✓ |
BYU
@
Baylor
|
-2.8 | 166.4 | 40% | 99–94 | ✓ |
Rhode Island
@
George Washington
|
+7.2 | 151.1 | 74% | 70–75 | ✓ |
George Mason
@
Richmond
|
-2.1 | 143.3 | 43% | 70–82 | ✗ |
Fordham
@
Saint Joseph's
|
+3.7 | 131.1 | 63% | 68–64 | ✗ |
Notre Dame
@
SMU
|
+10.5 | 156.1 | 83% | 81–89 | ✓ |
Marquette
@
Villanova
|
+13.6 | 147.2 | 89% | 74–77 | ✓ |
Wisconsin
@
Illinois
|
+13.9 | 160.4 | 90% | 92–90 | ✗ |
Eastern Illinois
@
Western Illinois
|
-5.7 | 132.4 | 30% | 70–79 | ✗ |
Houston
@
Utah
|
-15.9 | 145.2 | 7% | 66–52 | ✓ |
Duke
@
Pittsburgh
|
-17.6 | 138.3 | 5% | 70–54 | ✓ |
Iowa State
@
TCU
|
-9.8 | 149.8 | 19% | 55–62 | ✗ |
Arkansas
@
LSU
|
-3.9 | 167.2 | 36% | 91–62 | ✓ |
Fresno State
@
Utah State
|
+17.9 | 147.4 | 95% | 78–91 | ✓ |
Oklahoma State
@
Arizona State
|
+1.7 | 166.8 | 56% | 76–85 | ✓ |
Colorado State
@
Air Force
|
-14.9 | 132.0 | 9% | 91–74 | ✓ |
Washington State
@
Gonzaga
|
+22.8 | 157.8 | 98% | 53–83 | ✓ |
San José State
@
UNLV
|
+10.4 | 155.1 | 83% | 75–82 | ✓ |
Iowa
@
Maryland
|
-14.4 | 142.8 | 10% | 70–77 | ✗ |
Colgate
@
Holy Cross
|
-5.8 | 143.6 | 30% | 74–70 | ✓ |
Boston University
@
Army
|
-1.7 | 155.3 | 44% | 85–68 | ✓ |
The Citadel
@
Western Carolina
|
+10.1 | 152.4 | 82% | 49–87 | ✓ |
VCU
@
La Salle
|
-12.8 | 147.4 | 12% | 77–68 | ✓ |
USC
@
Ohio State
|
+6.5 | 160.8 | 72% | 82–89 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.