Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Under |
| Money | AUB -180 VAN +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAN +8 | 160 | Lost |
| Massey | VAN -1.6 (-6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.6 (-8.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAN -2.8 (-5.2) | 161.7 (-1.7) | 40% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -1.1 (-9.1) | 159.3 (+0.7) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAN -0.6 (-7.4) | 161.9 (-1.9) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VAN -0.1 (-7.9) | 160.8 (-0.8) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2025 | AUB 80 – 68 VAN |
| Feb 1, 2024 | AUB 81 – 54 VAN |
| Jan 18, 2024 | AUB 80 – 65 VAN |
| Feb 19, 2023 | VAN 67 – 65 AUB |
| Feb 17, 2022 | AUB 94 – 80 VAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-16 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 11-7 |
| Home | 14-4 | 13-3 |
| Away | 2-8 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.0 | 85.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.8 | 75.0 |
| Massey | 15.9 (#32) | 20.4 (#13) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.56 (#32) | 3.16 (#20) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.71 (#29) | 4.36 (#16) |
| RPI | 0.615 (#28) | 0.630 (#18) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 48.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 56.7% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 13.5% |
| ORB% | 37.8% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 34.5% | 29.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 31.5% |
Game Analysis
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