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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
17–10 on winners
spread MAE 11.6
27 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Boston College
@
Rhode Island
|
+1.6 | 157.6 | 56% | 69–64 | ✗ |
Utah State
@
South Dakota State
|
+6.5 | 152.5 | 72% | 59–83 | ✓ |
Purdue
@
Clemson
|
-4.4 | 117.0 | 35% | 70–81 | ✗ |
Villanova
@
Arizona State
|
-1.6 | 157.6 | 44% | 83–74 | ✓ |
Auburn
@
Gonzaga
|
+2.3 | 175.2 | 58% | 67–90 | ✓ |
East Tennessee State
@
Middle Tennessee
|
+3.6 | 126.9 | 63% | 57–43 | ✗ |
Virginia
@
San Francisco
|
-15.2 | 146.1 | 8% | 60–61 | ✗ |
Toledo
@
Xavier
|
+13.0 | 129.8 | 88% | 73–76 | ✓ |
Ohio
@
Illinois
|
+27.5 | 153.0 | 99% | 75–77 | ✓ |
Jacksonville State
@
Florida Atlantic
|
+6.7 | 140.6 | 73% | 60–50 | ✗ |
Evansville
@
Prairie View A&M
|
+5.4 | 135.8 | 69% | 61–64 | ✓ |
Western Kentucky
@
West Virginia
|
+2.8 | 156.5 | 60% | 64–70 | ✓ |
Saint Joseph's
@
Kansas
|
-2.3 | 175.2 | 42% | 72–94 | ✗ |
Sam Houston
@
Texas Tech
|
+30.0 | 157.1 | 100% | 52–84 | ✓ |
Eastern Kentucky
@
Charleston Southern
|
-9.0 | 150.4 | 21% | 60–50 | ✓ |
Austin Peay
@
Abilene Christian
|
+9.5 | 136.8 | 81% | 72–80 | ✓ |
South Dakota
@
Drake
|
+16.8 | 148.2 | 94% | 53–69 | ✓ |
Pepperdine
@
UCLA
|
-4.5 | 145.7 | 34% | 98–107 | ✗ |
Navy
@
Maryland
|
+21.0 | 149.8 | 97% | 52–82 | ✓ |
Oakland
@
Bradley
|
+24.9 | 129.8 | 99% | 60–74 | ✓ |
North Carolina A&T
@
Chicago State
|
+0.7 | 153.0 | 52% | 74–44 | ✗ |
UC Davis
@
Santa Clara
|
+19.3 | 149.1 | 96% | 63–66 | ✓ |
Saint Peter's
@
La Salle
|
-7.3 | 148.9 | 25% | 62–51 | ✓ |
Utah State
@
Northern Iowa
|
+4.6 | 155.6 | 66% | 82–71 | ✗ |
Southern
@
Iowa
|
+28.3 | 156.1 | 99% | 76–103 | ✓ |
North Florida
@
NC State
|
+27.7 | 150.4 | 99% | 51–86 | ✓ |
South Dakota State
@
Saint Mary's
|
-3.8 | 138.1 | 36% | 59–72 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.