← All models
Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
5–4 on winners
spread MAE 14.4
9 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago State
@
Illinois
|
+41.5 | 156.9 | 100% | 38–97 | ✓ |
Bradley
@
Xavier
|
+29.2 | 138.0 | 100% | 50–51 | ✓ |
Western Kentucky
@
Memphis
|
+3.9 | 150.8 | 64% | 75–69 | ✗ |
Nevada
@
Nebraska
|
+24.0 | 136.8 | 99% | 69–66 | ✗ |
Austin Peay
@
East Tennessee State
|
-9.8 | 133.3 | 19% | 67–66 | ✓ |
Ohio
@
North Carolina A&T
|
+1.7 | 156.9 | 56% | 84–72 | ✗ |
Toledo
@
Oakland
|
-8.5 | 138.0 | 22% | 80–53 | ✓ |
Towson
@
San Francisco
|
+10.6 | 144.8 | 83% | 68–79 | ✓ |
Northern Iowa
@
Saint Mary's
|
-3.9 | 150.8 | 36% | 64–66 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.