Betting Lines
| Spread | UNI -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.0 Under |
| Money | SMC +105 UNI -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +2 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | UNI -3.7 (+5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.2 (-20.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNI -1.9 (+3.9) | 143.4 (-13.4) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNI -1.6 (+3.6) | 137.7 (-7.7) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 23, 2025 | SMC 63 – 58 UNI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | UNI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-10 | 10-15 |
| Conference | 4-6 | 7-11 |
| Home | 9-3 | 6-5 |
| Away | 2-3 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L2 | W3 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.2 | 68.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.6 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -5.7 (#65) | -2.0 (#49) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.06 (#75) | -1.06 (#67) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.58 (#74) | -1.45 (#68) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | UNI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 33.9% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 5.6% | 51.3% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 34.7% | 61.9% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 20.5% | 17.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 14.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.7% | 11.4% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 11.9% | 41.5% |
Game Analysis
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