Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -10.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.0 Under |
| Money | XAV -650 BRAD +475 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +1 | 101 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -31.0 (-30.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.3 (-39.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -18.2 (-17.2) | 136.7 (-35.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -16.0 (-15.0) | 144.4 (-43.4) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-8 | 12-16 |
| Conference | 6-7 | 6-12 |
| Home | 11-2 | 8-6 |
| Away | 2-5 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 68.1 |
| Massey | 10.2 (#6) | 0.7 (#41) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.35 (#41) | 1.06 (#15) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.56 (#21) | 1.26 (#18) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 60.6% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 39.4% | 23.8% |
| REB / G | 45.0 | 43.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 3.40 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 69.7% | 44.9% |
| TOV% | 13.0% | 22.5% |
| ORB% | 20.7% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 2.8% | 13.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 28.3% | 41.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 14.1% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.5% | 6.1% |
Game Analysis
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