Betting Lines
| Spread | OHIO -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | NCAT +900 OHIO -1667 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCAT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OHIO +12 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | NCAT -0.3 (-12.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.3 (-3.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OHIO -6.2 (-5.8) | 151.1 (+4.9) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OHIO -8.5 (-3.5) | 151.9 (+4.1) | 21% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCAT | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-1 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| Massey | -13.5 (#81) | 7.7 (#11) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.35 (#56) | 1.06 (#9) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.57 (#64) | 1.60 (#7) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCAT | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 34.4% | 58.3% |
| 3PT% | 26.3% | 42.1% |
| REB / G | 18.0 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 5.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 38.3% | 66.7% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 10.6% | 34.6% |
| FT Rate | 17.2% | 41.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 70.0% | 38.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 39.4% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 29.8% |
Game Analysis
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