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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
19–5 on winners
spread MAE 10.4
24 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fairleigh Dickinson
@
Rutgers
|
+18.8 | 148.2 | 96% | 75–96 | ✓ |
UC Irvine
@
San Diego State
|
+20.2 | 127.9 | 97% | 58–77 | ✓ |
Nicholls
@
Idaho State
|
-6.2 | 153.3 | 28% | 70–51 | ✓ |
Eastern Illinois
@
Marquette
|
+22.0 | 148.5 | 98% | 50–75 | ✓ |
Colorado
@
Kansas State
|
-1.0 | 155.1 | 46% | 76–58 | ✓ |
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
@
Wisconsin
|
+22.0 | 148.5 | 98% | 58–92 | ✓ |
VCU
@
Memphis
|
+3.3 | 146.2 | 62% | 70–59 | ✗ |
Abilene Christian
@
Omaha
|
-14.0 | 135.2 | 10% | 70–58 | ✓ |
Belmont
@
Queens University
|
-4.5 | 149.6 | 34% | 73–61 | ✓ |
North Dakota State
@
Nebraska
|
+20.0 | 136.7 | 97% | 57–79 | ✓ |
South Carolina State
@
Bowling Green
|
+27.8 | 155.7 | 99% | 78–101 | ✓ |
Illinois State
@
UMass Lowell
|
+8.7 | 152.7 | 78% | 82–72 | ✗ |
UNC Wilmington
@
Troy
|
+5.2 | 144.8 | 68% | 73–50 | ✗ |
LSU
@
Saint Louis
|
+18.7 | 152.3 | 96% | 81–85 | ✓ |
UMBC
@
Saint Francis
|
+21.8 | 143.0 | 98% | 80–65 | ✗ |
Mount St. Mary's
@
Navy
|
-13.6 | 133.0 | 11% | 67–73 | ✗ |
George Mason
@
Howard
|
-6.8 | 149.6 | 27% | 84–70 | ✓ |
Buffalo
@
Army
|
+9.5 | 132.5 | 81% | 74–78 | ✓ |
SE Louisiana
@
UAB
|
+23.0 | 142.1 | 98% | 59–84 | ✓ |
Northwestern State
@
UT Arlington
|
+0.1 | 152.2 | 50% | 71–80 | ✓ |
Idaho State
@
UC Davis
|
+3.7 | 145.8 | 63% | 61–70 | ✓ |
Western Carolina
@
UNC Asheville
|
-4.2 | 144.8 | 35% | 83–81 | ✓ |
Loyola Marymount
@
Minnesota
|
+24.5 | 161.4 | 99% | 73–88 | ✓ |
North Texas
@
Arkansas
|
+27.3 | 167.5 | 99% | 54–69 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.