Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | QUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BEL +12 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | BEL -4.7 (-7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.6 (-15.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BEL -3.1 (-8.9) | 145.3 (-11.3) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BEL -2.2 (-9.8) | 148.2 (-14.2) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BEL -2.3 (-9.7) | 146.4 (-12.4) | 39% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | QUC | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-2 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| Massey | 1.7 (#83) | 6.3 (#38) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.57 (#147) | 2.04 (#7) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.37 (#110) | 2.83 (#9) |
| RPI | 0.312 (#72) | 0.688 (#19) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | QUC | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 51.6% |
| 3PT% | 41.7% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 15.0 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 58.3% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 40.0% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 15.9% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.4% | 21.8% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.1% | 11.3% |
Game Analysis
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