Betting Lines
| Spread | NEB -9.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.0 Under |
| Money | NEB -475 NDSU +380 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEB +22 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | NEB -20.3 (+1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.2 (-2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEB -13.8 (+8.2) | 135.8 (+0.2) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEB -19.7 (+2.3) | 140.6 (-4.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEB -17.1 (+4.9) | 138.9 (-2.9) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEB | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-20 | 15-12 |
| Conference | 3-16 | 11-5 |
| Home | 6-9 | 6-2 |
| Away | 1-10 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.4 | 69.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 67.7 |
| Massey | 3.5 (#65) | -1.2 (#117) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.99 (#157) | -0.48 (#145) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.07 (#153) | -0.62 (#121) |
| RPI | 0.700 (#18) | 0.750 (#11) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEB | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 29.1% |
| 3PT% | 29.2% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.68 | 0.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 34.5% |
| TOV% | 12.4% | 23.0% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 20.5% |
| FT Rate | 30.6% | 18.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 45.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 32.4% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 82.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 13.3% |
Game Analysis
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