Betting Lines
| Spread | ILST -2.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.0 Over |
| Money | UML +105 ILST -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UML win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILST +10 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | UML -8.4 (-18.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.1 (+2.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UML -6.1 (-16.1) | 145.1 (+8.9) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UML -6.5 (-16.5) | 146.7 (+7.3) | 77% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UML | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-12 | 7-18 |
| Conference | 7-8 | 4-14 |
| Home | 3-4 | 3-8 |
| Away | 6-6 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 73.4 |
| Massey | 4.5 (#51) | -3.8 (#137) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.00 (#10) | -0.46 (#139) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.82 (#10) | -0.72 (#140) |
| RPI | 0.875 (#5) | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UML | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.4% | 38.6% |
| 3PT% | 41.7% | 45.0% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.3% | 46.5% |
| TOV% | 27.0% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 40.0% | 21.6% |
| FT Rate | 64.3% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.8% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 13.0% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 64.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.9% | 40.6% |
Game Analysis
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