Betting Lines
| Spread | BUF -11.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | ARMY +500 BUF -700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARMY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARMY +4 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | ARMY -8.3 (-4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.0 (+19.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARMY -4.6 (-0.6) | 132.4 (+19.6) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARMY -4.5 (-0.5) | 135.5 (+16.5) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARMY | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Massey | 6.8 (#30) | -1.5 (#120) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.98 (#35) | 0.50 (#53) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.47 (#31) | 0.57 (#80) |
| RPI | — | 0.312 (#72) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARMY | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.6% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 48.4% | 23.8% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 46.0 |
| OREB / G | 5.0 | 19.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.64 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 65.8% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 17.2% | 42.2% |
| FT Rate | 7.0% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 37.3% | 38.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.9% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 83.7% | 61.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.9% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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