Betting Lines
| Spread | UTA -8.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | UTA -360 NWST +285 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTA +9 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | UTA -1.3 (+7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.9 (+1.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTA -1.1 (+7.9) | 143.7 (+7.3) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTA -0.8 (+8.2) | 142.1 (+8.9) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTA | NWST |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Massey | -7.5 (#166) | -8.8 (#178) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.82 (#184) | -0.39 (#110) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.50 (#175) | -0.64 (#126) |
| RPI | — | 0.500 (#35) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTA | NWST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.0% | 34.4% |
| 3PT% | 19.2% | 21.7% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.40 | 0.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.5% | 38.5% |
| TOV% | 6.4% | 23.3% |
| ORB% | 14.9% | 17.8% |
| FT Rate | 12.7% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 60.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.7% | 12.8% |
| DRB% | 65.0% | 63.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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