Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.0 Under |
| Money | TROY -140 UNCW +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +23 | 123 | Lost |
| Massey | TROY -5.9 (-28.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.6 (-20.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -4.0 (-27.0) | 140.3 (-17.3) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -1.5 (-21.5) | 145.1 (-22.1) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -2.0 (-25.0) | 140.3 (-17.3) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TROY | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-1 |
| Massey | 5.0 (#45) | -0.9 (#113) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.14 (#4) | -0.01 (#104) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.18 (#5) | -0.27 (#106) |
| RPI | 1.000 (#1) | 0.271 (#79) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TROY | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.7% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 40.0% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 28.5 |
| OREB / G | 6.0 | 6.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 0.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.3% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 15.4% | 20.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 41.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.4% | 56.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 86.8% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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