Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -16.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.0 Over |
| Money | HOW +1700 GMU -4500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +14 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | GMU -7.3 (-6.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.6 (+4.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -5.8 (-8.2) | 143.9 (+10.1) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -6.6 (-7.4) | 143.6 (+10.4) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -6.4 (-7.6) | 142.3 (+11.7) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOW | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 0-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Massey | -7.7 (#168) | -0.3 (#105) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.04 (#185) | 0.57 (#48) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.88 (#183) | 0.42 (#91) |
| RPI | 0.312 (#72) | 0.688 (#19) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOW | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 27.7% | 20.5% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 29.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 23.2% | 24.0% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.9% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 11.3% | 27.0% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 59.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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