Betting Lines
| Spread | UCD -9.0 Push |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | UCD -420 IDST +340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCD +9 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | UCD -2.6 (+6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.6 (-14.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | UCD -1.9 (+7.1) | 139.0 (-8.0) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCD -2.0 (+7.0) | 140.1 (-9.1) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCD -2.0 (+7.0) | 135.2 (-4.2) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2025 | UCD 93 – 83 IDST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCD | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-8 | 13-11 |
| Conference | 6-4 | 8-6 |
| Home | 4-3 | 8-3 |
| Away | 4-3 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 61.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 64.5 |
| Massey | 1.4 (#85) | -1.2 (#118) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.19 (#162) | -0.41 (#111) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.58 (#161) | -0.63 (#125) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#35) | 0.500 (#35) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCD | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 34.7% |
| 3PT% | 26.7% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 5.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 42.9% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 30.9% |
| ORB% | 14.5% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 39.6% | 14.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.4% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
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